Spatial assessment of the effect of climate change on food inflation evidence from the African economy

Abstract

The effect of climate change on agricultural productivity, food insecurity and food inflation are evidently witnessed across Africa. However, no empirical studies have been done to spatial ascertain the effect of climate change on food inflation in Africa. Hence this study sought to spatially assess the effect of climate change (temperature, carbon dioxide emission, and precipitation) on food inflation in Africa to identify specific countries at risk. The study utilized secondary data from the World Development Indicators, World Bank, and World Knowledge Climate Portal and applied exponential smooth forecast, forest-based classification and regression analysis to understand how climate change interacts with food inflation in all 54 African countries. This study’s results showed that with the effect of climate change on food inflation in Africa, temperature is the most significant contributor, influencing food inflation rate by 47%, followed by precipitation at 32%, and carbon dioxide emissions at 21%. Notably, except for East and Southern Africa, countries in West Africa emerge as regions to experience the highest food inflation rate as a result of climate change. Furthermore, projections for the effect of climate change on food inflation indicated that precipitation will be the primary contributor, driving food inflation rate by 38% by 2037, while temperature and carbon dioxide emissions are expected to account for 33% and 29% respectively. By 2037 countries in West Africa are likely to experience the highest food inflation rates as a result of climate change's influence on food inflation than any other regions in Africa. The study concludes that immediate, targeted interventions are essential to mitigate climate impacts on food prices, particularly in vulnerable regions. Governments and development agencies such as the UN and FAO should promote the adoption of drought-tolerant crops, sustainable irrigation techniques, and investment in water harvesting and storage facilities to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on food price.